$BASEDec 31
Base launches a token by Dec 31, 2026
50%chance YES
$0 vol0 betsmanual
Native marketEvent marketManual resolution
Will Base still settle more than 90% of x402 transactions on July 30, 2026
A native Hunch YES/NO market on x402, the agentic-payment protocol where AI agents pay for APIs and services in USDC. Base once settled ~90% of all x402 transactions, but Solana has closed the gap — the two chains are now neck-and-neck on transaction count. This market resolves YES only if Base re-consolidates above a 90% share of x402 transactions by July 30, 2026, and NO otherwise. Settled by Hunch from public on-chain x402-by-chain data.
Outcome
YES / NO
Resolves
By on-chain data
Deadline
Jul 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Countdown
Closed
Total betted so far
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YES
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NO
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How this resolves
This market resolves YES if, on July 30, 2026 (11:59 PM UTC), Base accounts for more than 90% of x402 protocol transactions across the tracked chains (Base, Solana and Polygon), measured over the trailing 30 days — and NO otherwise. 'Transactions' means settled x402 USDC payments routed through known x402 facilitators. The share is read from public on-chain data via Hunch's Dune query 7736383, cross-checked against x402scan and Artemis. At creation Base sits well below 90% (Base and Solana are roughly level on transaction count), so YES requires Base to re-establish clear dominance.
Fee and settlement
Fees fund Hunch markets. The 2% entry fee from this x402 market goes to the Hunch market treasury. Winners split the entire market pool pro-rata by stake (parimutuel), so payouts never exceed the pool. This market has no live price feed — it is settled manually once the outcome is clear from on-chain x402 transactions by chain (dune 7736383, x402scan, artemis), by Jul 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC at the latest.
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