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Native marketManual resolution6 contenders · pick the winner

Which Coinbase stock reaches $10M of float on Base first

Float = shares on Base × the official price. NVDAc led with $6.7M on Oct 13, then GOOGLc $4.5M, METAc $3.9M and AMZNc $2.9M. Which is first to $10M — or none by Dec 31?

Contenders

6

Resolution

Manual

Judged from

First Coinbase stock to $10M float on Base

Deadline

Dec 31

Total betted so far

$0.00

0 bets

NVIDIA (NVDAc)

16¢

Even

odds · no bets yet

Backed

$0

Alphabet (GOOGLc)

16¢

Even

odds · no bets yet

Backed

$0

Meta (METAc)

Favourite17¢

Even

odds · no bets yet

Backed

$0

Amazon (AMZNc)

17¢

Even

odds · no bets yet

Backed

$0

Another Coinbase stock

17¢

Even

odds · no bets yet

Backed

$0

None by Dec 31

17¢

Even

odds · no bets yet

Backed

$0

Proof · committed publicly on X

Both fighters agreed to this bet in the open. The posts below are the receipts — this market just lets everyone else back a side.

Fee and resolution

Fees fund Hunch markets. The 2% entry fee from this tokenized-stock float market goes to the Hunch market treasury. Winners split the entire market pool pro-rata by stake (parimutuel), so payouts never exceed the pool. Float is measured at each NYSE close (4:00 PM ET; 1:00 PM on early-close days) as the token's totalSupply() on Base at that moment × its Coinbase Chainlink feed price in force then (the deepest stable Base pool for a stock without a feed). Resolves to the first stock whose float is at least $10,000,000 at any such close between listing and Dec 31, 2026; if two cross at the same close, the larger float wins. Supply history is reconstructible from the token's mint and burn events, so anyone can re-check it. "None" if no stock crosses. Betting closes Dec 31, 4:00 PM ET, or when a crossing is published on Hunch. These rules are fixed at listing and are never clarified or edited afterwards; Hunch settles by hand from the named source and publishes the figure it used. Judged from: totalSupply() on Base × Coinbase Chainlink feeds.

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