$BASEDec 31
Base 5K TPS by Dec 31
50%chance YES
$0 vol0 betsonchain_rpc
Native marketOn-chain liveness resolves5 bands · pick the count
How many times will Base stop producing blocks before 2027
A native multi-outcome Hunch market: how many times will Base go DOWN — stop producing blocks for at least 15 minutes — between launch and December 31, 2026 (UTC)? Pick the count band. Outages are detected automatically from Base's own mainnet blocks over JSON-RPC: a quorum of independent public RPCs is polled and an outage is counted only when every reachable endpoint's chain tip is stale, so a single flaky node can't fabricate one. Only outages that BEGIN after this market opens count — any outage already in progress at launch is excluded, so “0 times” stays a live outcome. Resolves at the deadline to the band containing the final outage count; winners split the entire pool pro-rata (parimutuel).
Chain
Base
Outages so far
1
Outage = no block for
≥15 min
Countdown
119d08h09m18s
Total betted so far
$9.00
1 bet
Counted outages (Base, ≥15 min)Leading: 1 time
1since the market opened
Outage log · counted incidents
- Jun 26, 15:29 UTC → 19 minblock 47,849,205
Ranges · low → high · pick the close
Parimutuel
0 times
96%
implied chance
Backed$9.00
1 time
Live1%
implied chance
Backed$0
2 times
1%
implied chance
Backed$0
3 times
1%
implied chance
Backed$0
More than 3 times
1%
implied chance
Backed$0
Fee and resolution
Fees fund Hunch markets. The 2% entry fee from this Base-downtime market goes to the Hunch market treasury. Winners split the entire market pool pro-rata by stake (parimutuel), so payouts never exceed the pool. An outage is counted when Base produces no new block for at least 15 minutes, detected from a quorum of independent public Base RPCs. Only outages that begin after the market opened count; the market resolves at Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC to the band containing the final count.
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